There are few reports in the networking industry that illicit as much dialogue and debate as Cisco’s annual Visual Networking Index (VNI). This year’s report proves no different. Released yesterday, the report has already garnered significant media coverage and a brief glance through some of the figures reveals why. There are some incredible predictions here, but one in particular has caught my attention.
Cisco forecasts that by 2015, there will be a significant shift in global IP traffic, with WiFi devices consuming more bandwidth than wired devices. The report highlights that WiFi traffic (including mobile devices) will rise to a commanding 54% of all IP data consumed, while wired traffic will decrease from 63% in 2010 to 46%. This is the first time that such a swing has occurred and there’s no indication that this trend will stop any time soon. Indeed, many analysts believe that wired traffic will only diminish as the proliferation of WiFi-enabled devices continues to grow.
It’s this proliferation that really captures my imagination. Cisco expects the number of Internet-connected devices to grow over the next four years to 15 billion. Globally this represents two connected devices per person; a figure that will no doubt increase as the tablet market continues to expand. The cultural significance of this could prove immense, especially in regards to education, healthcare and especially communication. There can be no question that the applications we’re developing now will impact upon how future generations live.
A recent report from the Pew Internet and American Life Project already underlines this impact, revealing that over 24% of American adults are now using VoIP services to communicate with friends and family. This figure marks an increase of 17% from 2007. However, Pew’s research indicates that most of these calls are made from urban environments. Imagine how this figure will change once rural communities have access to such services. What’s more, consider the impact of mobile VoIP applications as they grow in availability and popularity.
In an earlier post, I highlighted the threat VoIP services pose to mobile carriers, especially as we continue to migrate to LTE and 4G technologies. In an all data environment, mobile carriers will have to drastically redevelop their business models if they wish to remain financially viable and avoid becoming purely a transport link, the ‘dumb pipe’. Yet they will have to tread very carefully here. The end of the unlimited data package has already drawn significant concerns from users as they seek to take advantage of IP-based voice and video calls. These concerns will only grow as access to mobile bandwidth becomes increasingly reliable and widespread.
One direct impact of the removal of unlimited data packages is the significant increase in WiFi offloading and this is clearly reflected in Cisco’s forecast. Consider, for example, how many of your wireless devices are currently connected to your home router. I can count six, including two that are streaming video and one that’s streaming music. However, what’s frustrating here is the lack of WiFi connectivity away from your home environment. Yes, Starbucks has a great network of hotspots, but what about outside of this? The much-discussed WiFi blankets are still years from reality and it appears the appetite from carriers to work together to develop them is limited.
Even without any significant developments in WiFi blankets, there can be no doubt that we’re entering an age of WiFi connectivity. Cisco’s figures firmly highlight a trend away from wired devices to a mobile environment where access to video, communication, gaming and countless other applications is only an arm’s length away. As mobile devices become increasingly powerful this is surely a trend that will only accelerate.
I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on Cisco’s report and especially the growth in WiFi traffic. Are you seeing a rise in the number of connected devices? Are you using WiFi networks more than cellular or wired? If so, what impact is this having on your life? Do you find yourself engaging more frequently in online activities?