For any regular readers of this blog, it will come as no surprise that I was fascinated this week by the release of Cisco’s latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) study and its explosive findings on the growth of mobile broadband. So explosive in fact, that the sheer volume of news that it generated was almost as steep as the study’s predictions for the world’s appetite for mobile data.

One article in particular caught my attention, referring to Cisco’s findings as a looming tsunami for the mobile industry. On face value this appears to be a fair assessment. Between 2010 and 2015, Cisco expects to see a 92% compound annual growth rate in the amount of mobile data traffic. This growth represents a 26-fold increase, with the average mobile user consuming 1,118 Mbit/s of data. Today’s average user consumes 65 Mbit/s.

Unlike the staggering figures, there are no surprises when it comes to the causes of this predicted growth. The usual suspects are by now well known to all, but the growing popularity of tablets, especially in regards to mobile video is now playing a critical role. The study found that mobile video is set to increase 35-fold by 2015, while tablet traffic is expected to grow 205-fold. Of any devices tracked in the study, tablets are considered the game changer.

While Netflix and Apple will no doubt relish this suggested growth, service providers may be a little more concerned about the capacity of their networks to accommodate such demand, especially in regards to the access network. In a recent blog post, I discussed the FCC’s concerns that we’re soon about to encounter a spectrum shortage that could severely impact on mobile broadband connectivity.

Aside from the challenge posed by current networks to meet significant mobile broadband growth, it’s also important to consider how service providers will respond from a pricing standpoint. These studies often create an idyllic picture of a globally connected mobile planet, where all can enjoy access to tablets and the associated services. However, they frequently overlook the role of subscription costs. The era of unlimited data has ended. As service providers continue to impose stricter tiered pricing rules, we need to consider how this will check such forecasted growth.

What do you think to Cisco’s findings? Are these figures realistic? Also, how has tiered pricing impacted upon your mobile activities? I’d be interested to hear your response on this.

Read more on this topic here: Mobile Backhaul Evolution