There can be few in the tech sector who missed the recent launch of the Cisco Cius or the subsequent media debate as to how it would impact upon Apple’s latest golden egg, or should that be golden tablet. While I have my own personal views on this discussion, I was far more interested in a throwaway comment that John Chambers made regarding the Cius, stating that ‘video is the new voice.’
This is an incredibly forward looking comment and one that made most networks gulp with trepidation, especially those still dependent upon copper in the access network. The launch of the Cius and the iPhone 4 goes some way to supporting Chambers’ assertion and hints at a world where video conferencing is the norm, where we no longer use just our voice to communicate. But how close is this assertion to reality and is it a reality that we all want to embrace?
There can be no question that video consumption is still the hot topic for network and content providers. People want video with them wherever they go, whether it be at home, on the move or in an office, universal access is expected and in many areas demanded. But with many mobile providers now capping data usage and suggestions of throttling upload speeds, how realistic is it to expect access to video content and reliable video conferencing on the go?
This is a question that has been discussed a great deal on Twitter over the past few days and here are a few interesting figures and quotes:
@jenniferlucille Video calling feature on iPhone uses 30x more bandwidth than voice @BBCClick Response to FaceTime: "I'd be surprised if video-calling takes off in any meaningful way over the next 2-3 years." - Kevin Russell, CEO, 3 @gigaom More than 30 billion video calls are expected by 2015
An interesting mix, but it is the prediction from Gigaom that is particularly staggering. In less than five years, it expects over 30 billion video calls to be generated. Given this prediction and the development of supporting applications and hardware, it’s clear that network providers need to start heavily supporting mobile backhaul upgrades, particularly once applications such as Apple’s FaceTime move from Wi-Fi to cellular networks, something Apple is hoping to see next year.
I’ll be monitoring this situation closely over the coming weeks and will be providing an update soon.
Have you had any experiences of video conferencing with FaceTime or other mobile applications? If so, I’d be interested in your thoughts on the topic.
Read more about the challenge of mobile backhaul here.
***Update***
On July 7, AT&T made a statement explaining why mobile upload speeds had dropped significantly. Apparently this was due to a software problem and is being resolved.